Pencil, break-even, or do not enroll — before July 24, 2026.
Live result
Do not enrollMW firm (LPC)
200 MW
MW expected (p50)
484 MW
−3%
MW p90
468 MW
−6%
Why
6 of 6 PGRR144/NOGRR282 model checks are missing. Approval-to-energize is gated on these.
West hub (Midland-Odessa): Wind/solar-export adjacent. Dispatch-down is common but less severe than the Panhandle.
Curtail cost
$704k/MW-yr
Net value
−$654k/MW-yr
Tier 1 coverage
33%
Heuristic v1. Hub presets approximate ERCOT congestion patterns; not a nodal model. Cites PGRR145, NPRR1325, PUCT 58481 Item 122, Workshop #7, PGRR144, NOGRR282.
BYOG envelope
No BYOG modeled. Set Grid import cap > 0 to evaluate the self-limiting facility path.
Financial commitment (PFP base case)
Intermediate-stage security
$50k/MW × 500 MW = $25.0M
Non-refundable IA fee
$50k/MW × 500 MW = $25.0M
Total commitment
$50.0M
Refundable @ 80%
$20.0M
PUCT Staff Apr 29: studied-load paths get up to 80% return; no direct-interconnection-cost security required to enter Batch Zero.
PCLR dispatch profile
Expected dispatch-down (p50)
469 hrs/yr
Stress-case dispatch-down (p90)
939 hrs/yr
Break-even dispatch-down
Above this, the firm queue beats PCLR economics.
33 hrs/yr
Required flex MW for full coverage
Paired-asset MW that fully absorbs the non-firm portion.
300 MW
Filing readiness — gaps
6 of 6 checks missing. Approval-to-Energize is gated on these.
8-step PCLR workflow (Workshop #7)
On the July 24 information date.
Sources