The Blog.
Posts
11
From
Apr 2026
to May 2026
Last 12 months · publication cadence
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Raymond Xu · May 19, 2026 · 6 min read
What actually predicts a data-center rejection: 1258 decisions, 30 surviving signals
We pulled every primary-source US data-center entitlement decision 2022–2026 (N=1258), tagged 22 variables from articles, joined to 124 Census features per county, and ran lasso to find the minimal predictive subset. Half the conventional-wisdom variables turn out to be noise. The strongest non-policy signal isn't anything an industry analyst would have picked.
Read →
Raymond Xu · May 10, 2026 · 5 min read
Where the $753B is going: hyperscaler 2026 capex in 12 line items
Big-4 hyperscalers will spend $725B on capex in 2026; pulling Oracle in pushes the top-5 to $753B. The headline number is now bigger than the US discretionary defense budget. The interesting question is no longer how big — it's where, broken down past the usual chips-vs-infra split.
Read →
Raymond Xu · May 3, 2026 · 5 min read
How many hours of demand response can a Texas data center actually offer tenants?
Three constraints stack to determine the answer: PCLR binding curtailment, ERS / voluntary CLR optional calls, and Title V air permit headroom on backup-genset runtime. Each has a different unit and a different ceiling. The combined number is what AI-tenant procurement teams actually underwrite.
Read →
Raymond Xu · April 28, 2026 · 4 min read
PJM in three charts: 13 states, three deals, the next 13 weeks
PJM's 2026 flex-interconnection year runs through three regulatory venues at once. The parts that matter for a specific site come down to three things — political alignment, the three deals on offer, and a 13-week decision window before all three finalize. Three charts.
Read →
Raymond Xu · April 28, 2026 · 3 min read
PCLR in three charts: where you sit, how the deal splits, when you decide
ERCOT's Provisional Controllable Load Resource is mostly a regulatory mechanism, but the parts that matter for an actual data center site come down to three things — geography, the firm-vs-flex split, and the 14-week decision window. Three charts.
Read →
Raymond Xu · April 27, 2026 · 6 min read
ERCOT PCLR: trading firm transmission for time-to-energization in Batch Zero
Between March and April 2026, ERCOT absorbed Provisional Controllable Load Resource into one-time rulemaking. Texas data center developers have ~14 weeks to decide whether to enroll. Here is the deadline structure, the dispatch math, and the financial thresholds.
Read →
Raymond Xu · April 27, 2026 · 6 min read
PJM's flex interconnection year: BYONG, Non-Firm Contract Demand, and the federal 60-day rule
FERC EL25-49 in December, the PJM Board letter in January, and FERC RM26-4-000 by April set up a year where large loads in PJM trade firm transmission for speed in three different ways. Here is what each one actually requires.
Read →
Raymond Xu · April 21, 2026 · 2 min read
Live docket intelligence: a regulatory knowledge graph that compounds
FERC, PJM, ERCOT, and state DEQ filings are already public. What was not possible before 2023 is reading them all, every day, at LLM speed. That is the product.
Read →
Raymond Xu · April 21, 2026 · 2 min read
An AI first-pass reviewer for PJM interconnection submissions
The pre-ISA deficiency letter is the most expensive email in the industry. The Cliff submission validator reads your application against the tariff before you send it.
Read →
Raymond Xu · April 21, 2026 · 2 min read
How the Cliff de-rate calculator prices hidden MW loss
RICE NESHAP hour budgets, state BACT guidance, and curtailment frequency combine into an effective MW number most underwriting never sees. Here is the math, site by site.
Read →
Raymond Xu · April 16, 2026 · 5 min read
DCW 2026: hitting the biggest problems in data center site readiness coordination
Power is the dominant bottleneck. Community and policy risk is now first-order. The conference agenda mostly mirrors that. Notes before flying out.
Read →