Virginia / cost-shift

Why it matters

Direct update to strategy/virginia-data-center-legislation-2026.md, which as of Apr 28 had this as an 'open question' — the question is now resolved on the legislature side. Three scenarios remain for May 22: sign as-passed (the maximalist VA cost-shift template), veto (politically costly given residential savings), or no action (still enactment). The Apr 30 K92/WSLC reporting that Spanberger is publicly defending Google data center deals amid Roanoke protests suggests veto is unlikely; the realistic question is whether she signs or lets it become law without signature. Combine with the Dominion Q1 ESA disclosure: the 10.4 GW already at ESA stage *predates* the new cost allocation, so the cost-shift effectively applies to the ~40 GW SELOA/CLOA pipeline coming behind it. That's the population the regulatory-knowledge-graph wedge can immediately price — what's the $/MW lifetime cost difference for a project whose ESA signs after vs before whatever effective date Spanberger lands on. This is a calendar-driven underwriting question and exactly the kind of unstructured-text-to-structured-data work the air-permit case study scaffolding can extend to. Also pair with the Spanberger bill-disposition fight on HB 507 (Tier-4 generator mandate) — same governor, same May 22 deadline, same political dynamic; whether she splits the disposition is a tell on her data-center stance.