Plain-English version. Yesterday's edition framed July 10 as the ERCOT Batch Zero application deadline for large loads (≥75 MW). Today we have the actual scale number, which ERCOT's June 18 'Trending Topic: New Batch Connection Process for Large Electricity Users' brief now publicly confirms: 438,000 MW of proposed demand has entered ERCOT's connection queue, and nearly 90% of that — ~395,000 MW — is from data centers. Context on what that number means. ERCOT's all-time system peak is about 85,000 MW (set August 2023). The all-of-Texas residential + industrial + commercial load running today at peak summer hours is ~80,000 MW. The data center load that has REQUESTED interconnection in ERCOT's queue is therefore ~4.7x the entire current ERCOT system load. Obviously not all of that is real — much of it is speculative, multi-counted (same project filed in multiple places), or held by Bitcoin-mining operators who file for capacity they will never build. The whole point of the Batch Zero process is to compress speculative-vs-real into a single classification event in August 2026. What July 10 specifically requires. By July 10, the prospective large-load customer (the data center developer) must submit a completed Declaration of Intent (Form W, Part A) to its Interconnecting Large Load Entity (ILLE) — which is typically the Transmission Service Provider (Oncor, CenterPoint, AEP Texas, etc.) or the Distribution Service Provider for the local area. The ILLE then has until July 24 to forward the package, plus supporting modeling data including the minimum LPC (Large Power Customer) limit for each study year, to ERCOT. The PCLR (Provisional Controllable Load Resource) commitment is the optional accelerator. A customer that commits to letting ERCOT curtail its load during periods of localized grid stress (e.g., transmission constraint events on a specific bus or substation) can receive a Batch Zero classification ahead of full transmission build-out. PCLR is structurally similar to ERCOT's existing Controllable Load Resource (CLR) product used by industrial loads for grid-frequency response, but is provisioned earlier in the interconnection lifecycle. The expected fraction of Batch Zero applicants who file as PCLR vs. firm-load is one of the major unknowns of the next 6 weeks. What happens after the August classification notices. Each application receives one of three classifications: cleared (no transmission upgrade required, can connect immediately), conditionally cleared (subject to specific transmission/network upgrades), or further-study (requires additional transmission planning that will fold into Batch 1, opening Summer 2027). The final transmission expansion plan for the whole Batch Zero cohort is published Fall 2027.
Why it matters
Three implications. (1) The 90%-of-438k-MW data point is the clearest single quantification yet of the speculative-to-real ratio in any RTO large-load queue. Cliff's corpus should use this number as the baseline 'load queue speculative ratio' for cross-RTO comparison: when PJM, MISO, SPP, etc. file their August 17 FERC tariffs, the same number for each RTO will be the most important comparative metric Cliff can extract. The 'queue-to-system-peak ratio' becomes a corpus-level KPI. (2) For Cliff GTM in Texas: the August classification notices are the first time a Texas hyperscaler site's interconnection status will be public-and-structured. Every Cliff site-diligence package for a Texas project starting in September should pull the August classification — cleared / conditional / further-study — as the single most important interconnection variable. The corpus should have an automated PUCT-docket-tracker for Batch Zero filings starting July 10, since the filings will flow through PUCT IDs once forwarded by the ILLEs. (3) Virginia's $0.011/kWh tax going live in 3 days completes the implementation-week picture: a Texas site files Batch Zero on July 10 with PCLR commitment vs. a Virginia site is now paying the per-kWh tax starting July 1. The two states represent the cleanest comparative regulatory environment for hyperscaler decision-making, and the next 6 months will produce the first dataset of hyperscaler site-selection decisions made under the new dual regime. The corpus should be tracking announced TX vs VA campus decisions starting now.
Related filings
T-7 ERCOT ILLE Form W Jul 10 / T-21 Form W step 2 Jul 24 / PJM 2028-29 auction closes Jul 7 / results Jul 14 / price band $175-325 MW-day / 13-state governor pre-negotiated band / MD FERC ratepayer complaint comment deadline Jul 27 extended / NY A11560 not delivered to Hochul / 10-day clock not started / passive enactment plausible / 4 deadline-anchored windows next 24 days
Plain-English background on why the four operational-track deadlines all matter this month. Each of these deadlines drives a specific action by developers, hyperscalers, or state parties, and each represents a concrete moment where Cliff can produce a...
ERCOT Batch Zero / PCLR / NPRR1325 PGRR145 / PUCT approved Jun 18 / effective Jul 10 / DSP TSP applications due Jul 10 / ERCOT submission Jul 24 / classification notices Aug / final transmission plan Fall 2027 / Batch 1 opens Summer 2027 / first formal large-load interconnection track in Texas
Plain-English background. ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) runs the Texas grid that covers about 90% of the state's load — everything except a few corners that sit on SPP or Eastern Interconnection. ERCOT is unique among US grid operators because...
FERC show cause orders Jun 18 / Section 206 / PJM MISO SPP CAISO ISO-NE NYISO / 30-day informational report Jul 20 / 60-day tariff response Aug 17 / 90-day abeyance request Aug 3 / five reform categories / cost-shift prevention is the big one / colocation + BTMG rules / flexible-load transmission services
Plain-English version. On June 18, 2026, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC, the federal regulator with jurisdiction over the interstate transmission grid) used Section 206 of the Federal Power Act to issue what are called 'show-cause orders'...
FL moratorium wave / Clay final + Hernando, Lake first reading Jun 23 / Santa Rosa 3-1 to draft / Zephyrhills final / 5-8 FL jurisdictions in 5 weeks / SB 484 backdrop / water-first concern
Plain-English version of what happened. Tuesday, June 23 was the single most active moratorium day Florida has had — three county boards moved separate ordinances forward in a coordinated wave. Clay County (just south of Jacksonville, ~220,000 residents) gave...