PJM 2028/29 capacity auction bid close today Jul 7 EOD / results Tue Jul 14 after 4 PM ET / governor-negotiated $175 floor $325 cap / 13-state pre-negotiated band first-in-history / 65M people served / 22% of US demand / Virginia data center alley in-footprint / 2024/25 cleared $28.92 / 2025/26 cleared $269.92 / 2026/27 cleared $329.17 cap / clearing outcome determines 2028+ hyperscaler capex modeling / same-day analysis window 3-6 PM ET Jul 14

Plain-English background on why the PJM 2028/29 auction closing today matters more than a routine capacity procurement. PJM Interconnection operates the regional grid across 13 states and DC (roughly PA/NJ/MD/DE/VA/WV/OH/IL/IN/KY/NC/TN/MI and DC) — 65 million people, roughly 22% of US electricity demand, and the single most data-center-dense RTO in the country (Virginia's 'Data Center Alley' in Loudoun/Prince William is inside PJM's footprint). PJM runs an annual capacity auction called the Base Residual Auction (BRA) three years ahead of the delivery year: today's auction is for the 2028/29 delivery year (June 2028 through May 2029). Generators submit offers to be available and paid for capacity; PJM clears the market at a single price expressed in dollars per megawatt-day. What happened to prior clearing prices and why the price band exists. The 2024/25 auction cleared at $28.92/MW-day (routine). The 2025/26 auction cleared at $269.92/MW-day, roughly 9x higher, driven by data center demand growth outpacing supply. The 2026/27 auction (December 2025) cleared at the FERC-approved cap of $329.17/MW-day. That price shock passed through to residential ratepayer bills across all 13 PJM states, triggering political blowback that led all 13 PJM state governors — Democrats and Republicans jointly — to pre-negotiate a price cap and floor for the next two auctions (2027/28 and 2028/29). The band: $175/MW-day floor, ~$325/MW-day cap (FERC-approved $329.17). This is the first time in US wholesale-market history that governors have collectively negotiated a capacity market price band before the auction runs. The operational timeline of today's auction. Offer window opened Monday June 30. Sellers submit capacity offers throughout the week. Bidding closes at end-of-day today, Tuesday July 7. PJM runs the clearing algorithm over the next week. Results are published Tuesday July 14 after 4 PM Eastern Time. Every seller learns their cleared/uncleared status and settlement price simultaneously. Every state's residential ratepayer capacity-cost pass-through for the 2028/29 delivery year is set at that moment. What the clearing outcome will signal. Three plausible outcomes with distinct downstream implications: • **At or near the $325 cap** — validates the 13-governor pre-negotiation model, but signals that even with the cap, supply is not responding fast enough to close the gap with data center demand growth. Every hyperscaler modeling 2028+ capacity cost should assume $325/MW-day is the floor for their expected cost, not the ceiling. Ratepayer bills across 13 PJM states rise materially in 2028. • **In the middle of the band ($225–$285)** — signals that supply-side response is holding and the governor-negotiated model is working roughly as intended. This is the political win-win outcome — some ratepayer relief compared to 2026/27, hyperscalers get bounded predictability. • **At or near the $175 floor** — signals that supply-side response is overdelivering, which means either new generation is coming online faster than assumed or demand is softening (either data center project cancellations at PJM scale, or capacity market design pulling in resources that wouldn't have participated otherwise). This is the surprise outcome and would materially change the 2029+ auction dynamics. What Cliff should publish the afternoon of Tuesday July 14. A same-day analysis piece with (a) the clearing price and cleared MW, (b) how it maps against the three scenarios above, (c) pass-through cost implications for residential ratepayers in each of the 13 PJM states, (d) what it means for hyperscaler 2028+ capex modeling. That publication window — 3-6 PM Eastern on the day of results — is the natural inbound-traffic wedge for every PJM-affected hyperscaler regulatory affairs team.

Primary source · PJM Inside Lines — PJM Capacity Auction for 2028/2029 Delivery Year Opens (Jun 30 2026) + PJM Inside Lines — The Capacity Auction Is Coming. Here's What We're Doing Now + PA Environment Digest — FERC Approves Extension Of PJM Capacity Auction Price Cap Floor For Next 2 Auctions (Apr 30 2026) + PJM 2027/2028 Base Residual Auction Report (Dec 17 2025) + Enel North America — PJM 2027/2028 Capacity Auction Results + ESAI Power — PJM Capacity Auction Calendar ↗