Amazon Apr 29 evening: Q1 net sales $181.5B (+17% YoY), EPS $2.78 vs $1.62 consensus, AWS revenue $37.59B (+28%, 15-quarter high). Andy Jassy committed ~$200B 2026 capex; Q1 capex $44.2B (+77% YoY). Bedrock token volume in Q1 alone exceeded all prior years combined; customer spend +170% QoQ. Apple Apr 30 PM: $111.18B revenue, $2.01 EPS, services $30.98B — Apple's on-device inference model insulates it from the GPU/grid bottleneck the other four are competing for. Combined MSFT + GOOGL + META + AMZN 2026 capex now ~$725B per Stocktwits compile.
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Why it matters
Refines yesterday's $650B number to $725B and adds the Amazon-specific signal that's most underwriting-relevant: AWS growth re-accelerated to a 15-quarter high in the *same* quarter that capex grew 77% YoY. That's the demand-side validation for the supply-side bottleneck — capacity is selling through faster than it's coming online, which is what the de-rate-calculator-gtm.md / firm-equivalent-mw-underwrite.md narrative depends on. Apple's structural absence from the cloud-capex race is the other side: ~1 of 5 incumbent 'hyperscalers' isn't bidding for grid power, which makes the demand concentration on the other four even more important. Update the macro paragraph in de-rate-calculator-gtm.md from $650B → $725B.
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