Exelon cuts high-probability DC load 18→11 GW -40% / pipeline 43→25 GW / ComEd cancels PowerHouse Hillwood 1.8 GW $20B TSA / EXC -3.1% / EIA TX 2027 14%→6% / outlier: FirstEnergy +50% AEP 63→69 GW Dominion 53.8 GW Southern 17 GW Camellia 3.2 GW with 1 GW flexible DR / BofA 230+ GW needed vs 93 GW planned / JLL 25 GW H1 absorption 1% vacancy 66 GW UC 95% pre-let / BNEF +52% 2030 118 GW +83% 2035 194 GW / $11.3M per MW +6% / 499k worker shortfall

On July 30 Exelon became the first major utility to mark its data center pipeline to market: 'high probability' load cut from 18 GW to 11 GW (-40%), total future pipeline from 43 GW to 25 GW, disclosed in the Q2 8-K alongside the state-policy squeeze (NJ large-load tariffs signed Jul 7, Delaware's separate 30+ MW rate Jul 13, Maryland's Utility RELIEF Act). The concrete casualty: ComEd canceled the transmission service agreement for PowerHouse Hillwood's 1.8 GW, $20B Joliet campus — the project that had faced a citizen lawsuit and marathon-hearing vote delays. EXC fell ~3.1% on the print. EIA cut its Texas 2027 demand-growth forecast from 14% to 6% in the same stretch. But Exelon is — so far — a directional outlier among utilities: FirstEnergy raised its data center pipeline ~50%, AEP went 63→69 GW (with 45 GW of contracted Texas pipeline backed by ~$2B of customer collateral), Dominion's contracted backlog hit 53.8 GW (+5.3 GW since December, ~12 GW under electric service agreements), and Southern's contracted large load rose to 17 GW — including OpenAI's 3.2 GW 'Project Camellia' near Savannah with 1 GW of flexible demand response built into the deal. BofA's mid-July research note frames the gap: 230+ GW needed within five years vs ~93 GW planned by regulated utilities. And the physical market data says under-, not over-built: JLL's midyear North America report (Aug 11) printed a record 25 GW of H1 absorption, vacancy stuck at 1%, 66 GW under construction with 95% pre-committed. BNEF revised its US data center capacity forecast UP 52% for 2030 (118 GW) and 83% for 2035 (194 GW), with the tracked pipeline growing 101 GW since December. Construction costs: ~$11.3M per MW forecast for 2026 (+6%), with an up-to-499k construction-worker shortfall. The stress, where it shows, is in financial-market reaction (capex-raise selloffs, credit spreads) — not in the physical market, where the EPRI working paper's complication cuts the other way: data centers were correlated with LOWER retail prices through 2024, but the $7T buildout flips the risk.

Primary source · Exelon Q2 2026 8-K (SEC EDGAR, Jul 30 2026) + Utility Dive — Exelon data center load / FirstEnergy / Southern Co. earnings coverage + JLL — Data center demand exceeds expectations in H1 2026 (Aug 11 2026) + BloombergNEF — Six things to know about BNEF's new US data center capacity outlook (Jul 29 2026) ↗