Virginia / Spanberger clock

Why it matters

Update on yesterday's lead. Two new layers worth pulling out: (1) the budget hostage taking by the same legislators on data center sales-tax exemption is a tell that the cost-shift fight is not just about HB 1393 / SB 253 in isolation — it's about the entire VA fiscal treatment of data centers, and Spanberger's posture on the bills will read as a preview of her budget posture. (2) The 19-day window means the next news cycle for VA cost-shift is the Spanberger announcement itself. For virginia-data-center-legislation-2026.md: add a countdown to May 22 and a contingent branch for each of the three outcomes, with the price-of-load delta for each. The Dominion 51 GW contracted figure (Q1 lead) is what monetizes — at ~$50/MW-month delta on a 15% cost-shift, that's ~$300M/year in reallocated cost across the contracted book, dropping to whatever fraction of new contracts get touched depending on effective date. That's the input Cliff's de-rate calculator should be modeling for Virginia exposure.