The result the whole month was waiting for landed Tuesday July 14 after 4 PM ET: PJM procured 138,318 MW UCAP (149,182 MW counting FRR) at $325/MW-day — the FERC-approved collar cap — uniform across every locational deliverability area. Total cost: $16.4 billion. Reserve margin: 14.7%, which sounds healthy until you see that PJM cleared 6,831 MW BELOW its 1-in-10 reliability requirement — the first shortfall in the auction's history. New generation cleared: 525 MW. That is the whole supply response, against forecast peak load that rose roughly 2,000 MW year-over-year on data center growth. Of the three scenarios we sketched on July 7, the worst one printed: the collar held the price and the physics ignored it. The 13-governor pre-negotiated band (floor $175, cap $325) did exactly what it mechanically promised — bounded the price — and exactly nothing about the underlying scarcity. Interim CEO David Mills's framing: demand continues to grow faster than supply. Then the market monitor put a number on the cause. Monitoring Analytics president Joe Bowring attributed $6.3B of the $16.4B (38%) to data center load growth — and $29.4B of $63.6B (46%) across the last four auctions. His prescription went further than anything an IMM has proposed: run a separate capacity auction for data centers, require large loads to self-supply first, and impose 15-year capacity commitments where they can't. 'PJM is continuing to act like it's business as usual… it is really a paradigm shift.' (Caveat: the attribution methodology was still unpublished as of late July.) The political reaction arrived on schedule — NRDC ('higher prices for ratepayers in 13 states') and Sierra Club pressers within the week, a Maryland congressional-delegation letter to FERC Chair Laura Swett on July 27, and the IMM formally siding with the Maryland Office of People's Counsel's FERC complaint (EL26-63) the same day: data centers should directly pay the transmission costs they cause.
Why it matters
Three implications. (1) The capacity price for the biggest US data center market is now pinned at whatever the cap is, indefinitely — there is no scenario in current supply/demand where it clears below. Hyperscaler 2028+ capex models should treat the cap as the floor, and treat cap-renegotiation politics (the collar expires after 2029/30) as the actual price-risk variable. (2) A price collar that produces a reliability shortfall is politically self-undermining: it delivered neither cheap power nor enough power, which is precisely what empowered the board to reach past the stakeholder process two weeks later. (3) The IMM's 'separate auction for data centers' concept — unthinkable two years ago — is now the moderate position in the debate. The radical position is PJM's own board letter (next item).
Related filings
Prince George's County MD 2-year statutory moratorium / expected vote today Tue Jul 7 / Chair Krystal Oriadha says has votes not unanimous / replaces Braveboy EO expiring Sep 30 / 11-member council 6 needed / 2nd most populous MD county 955k / adjacent to DC / diversification-away-from-VA siting site / with Montgomery + Washington ~40% MD population under 12+ mo freeze / effective statewide MD removal through 2028 / fourth pattern county-cluster-reaches-critical-mass
Plain-English background on why the Prince George's vote today matters as more than a local ordinance. Prince George's County is the second-largest county in Maryland by population (~955k residents), immediately east of Washington DC. It sits inside the PJM...
PJM 2028/29 capacity auction bid close today Jul 7 EOD / results Tue Jul 14 after 4 PM ET / governor-negotiated $175 floor $325 cap / 13-state pre-negotiated band first-in-history / 65M people served / 22% of US demand / Virginia data center alley in-footprint / 2024/25 cleared $28.92 / 2025/26 cleared $269.92 / 2026/27 cleared $329.17 cap / clearing outcome determines 2028+ hyperscaler capex modeling / same-day analysis window 3-6 PM ET Jul 14
Plain-English background on why the PJM 2028/29 auction closing today matters more than a routine capacity procurement. PJM Interconnection operates the regional grid across 13 states and DC (roughly PA/NJ/MD/DE/VA/WV/OH/IL/IN/KY/NC/TN/MI and DC) — 65 million...
T+3 PJM bid close Jul 7 / T+3 Lakeland FL first reading Jul 6 9AM / T-6 ERCOT Form W Jul 10 / T+11 PJM auction results Jul 14 / T+16 Lakeland FL final vote Jul 20 / T+23 MD FERC comment deadline Jul 27 / Prince George's MD 2-year moratorium vote queued next week / NY A11560 not delivered to Hochul / 10-day clock not started / 6 deadline windows 24 days
Plain-English rollup of what didn't change over the July 4 weekend and what's coming next week. **ERCOT Batch Zero Form W Part A — T-6 to Thursday July 10.** No change since Thursday. The Interconnecting Large Load Entity (data center operator) must...
T-7 ERCOT ILLE Form W Jul 10 / T-21 Form W step 2 Jul 24 / PJM 2028-29 auction closes Jul 7 / results Jul 14 / price band $175-325 MW-day / 13-state governor pre-negotiated band / MD FERC ratepayer complaint comment deadline Jul 27 extended / NY A11560 not delivered to Hochul / 10-day clock not started / passive enactment plausible / 4 deadline-anchored windows next 24 days
Plain-English background on why the four operational-track deadlines all matter this month. Each of these deadlines drives a specific action by developers, hyperscalers, or state parties, and each represents a concrete moment where Cliff can produce a...