Analysis presented to PJM Interconnection's governing board: roughly 49 large gas-plant equivalents short by 2028. Aligns with the air-permit / interruptible-load wedge — 49 GW of unrealized capacity is the same number as 'load that needs to be derated, time-shifted, or BTM-served until firm capacity catches up'.
Primary source · ENR ↗
Why it matters
Strongest single number to put at the top of de-rate-calculator-gtm.md. Easier to sell '20-30% effective derate' when the buyer already believes there's a 49 GW gap.
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